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Clifford Cobb's avatar

Three-North Shelter Forest Project began in 1978. Since ecological restoration takes place over many decades, it is best to evaluate it from that perspective as well. In 2022, two teams from Inner Mongolia Agricultural University reported on progress to date. The charts they provide show that there has been significant progress (since 2000) in the northeast of China--in Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces, and in the eastern third of Inner Mongolia, plus the provinces to the south of those provinces. However, in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, and the western 2/3 of Inner Mongolia, the biological systems have stayed the same or become worse (less net primary production of carbon materials). The border regions between China and Russia or China and Mongolia have also deteriorated.

There are two lessons to be learned. 1) No nation has the technology to overcome or compensate for changes that are taking place at the regional or global climate, particularly in the upper atmosphere. Precipitation (rainfall) is declining in northern China, in part due to climate change. Irrigation cannot compensate for this change, not even for growing crops. Deserts in China will grow no matter what efforts are made to prevent continuing desertfication. 2) The decline in plant growth in the regions along the border with Russia and Inner Mongolia suggests that China might need to reach agreements with those countries and possibly subsidize programs on the other side of the border.

China has likely devoted more resources to fighting the expansion of deserts than any other nation. But the problem is not local. The causes of a decrease in precipitation are mostly global in nature, and China cannot control what other nations do. When humanity as a whole shows a disregard for nature by industrializing beyond the capacity of nature to handle the consequences, then all living things on earth will suffer.

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